By Satoshi Sugiyama
TOKYO, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Japan’s economy grew faster than initially estimated in the April-June quarter from the previous three months, supported by business spending that was less weak than the first reading, revised data showed on Tuesday.
The figure released by the Cabinet Office showed the economy expanded an annualised 1.4% in the second quarter, compared with initial estimates of 1.1%. Economists’ median forecast was for 1.6% growth.
Without annualisation, GDP grew 0.4%, matching the median forecast and above the preliminary reading of a 0.3% rise.
“Given that the April–June quarter was a period when the Middle East situation could have exerted downward pressure, the fact that growth ended up around this level is notable,” said Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “It is not at all a situation where we need to worry about the economy … That means the Bank of Japan can definitely move ahead with rate hikes.”
Capital expenditure fell 0.9% in the second quarter, revised up from the initial estimate for a 1.2% drop but a slightly faster decline than economists’ forecast for a 0.8% fall.
Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s economy, was flat, matching the initial data.
External demand, or exports minus imports, added 0.5 percentage point to GDP growth, unchanged from the preliminary data. Domestic demand knocked off 0.1 percentage point, better than a 0.2% drag in the initial estimate.
EYES ON BOJ DECISION NEXT WEEK
Markets widely see a Bank of Japan rate hike in September as a done deal, but investors are keen to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict and the BOJ’s past rate hikes on Japan’s economy.
The upward revision reflects capital spending data released last week that showed Japanese firms increased spending on plant and equipment by 1.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier.
Salary data also released on Tuesday showed Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 2.4% in July from a year earlier, marking the biggest increase since May 2021 and the seventh consecutive month of gains.
The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1% in June, but the central bank remains under pressure to push borrowing costs higher amid price pressures from the Middle East war and the yen’s downward trend.
Swap rates indicate a 98% chance for the BOJ to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its September meeting, according to money market broker Tokyo Tanshi. Traders also fully priced in another rate hike to 1.5% by the January meeting.
(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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